Current Stock Prices and Yields
Orix: Popular for Its Dividends and Shareholder Benefits
Stock prices have fallen due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
The current stock price is
1,138 yen per share
This represents a
it has fallen by as much as 40%.
With the stock price having fallen this much, the current dividend yield is
as high as 6.6%!
Plus, if you hold 100 shares,
the following benefits
If you buy now, both the dividends and shareholder benefits are at a very high level
Stock prices during the Lehman Shock
Now, let’s take a look at what happened to Orix’s stock price and dividends
let’s take a look at how ORIX’s stock price and dividends fared
The stock hit its lowest point on February 27, 2009
A low of 170 yen!
An unbelievable price
This is exactly what a stock price looks like when you’re at your most desperate.
If you’d bought shares for 200,000 yen and they dropped to 17,000 yen,
out of all the people who say they wouldn’t panic-sell,
actually be able to hold on to them…
I’m not so sure myself
So, what about the dividends?
The details were included in the presentation materials Orix provided to individual investors in November 2015.
7 yen, huh? (sweat)
That’s nowhere near a high dividend
But even in such uncertain times,
the fact that they paid a dividend at all might make them better than other companies.
Will the decline and dividend be the same as during the Lehman Shock?
This is just my personal opinion, but
I don’t think it will reach the same level as during the Lehman Shock
The reason is
it’s the diversification of the company’s business structure—for better or worse.
Although ORIX is classified under “Other Financial Services,”
that sector spans a wide range of areas and currently consists of six divisions.
The asset and profit ratios for each division are as follows:
While the retail segment (life insurance, banking, and consumer loans) still accounts for a high proportion, profit margins are diversified
The table below lists each division in order of profit.
However, all of these sectors are sensitive to economic conditions, and the current COVID-19 crisis is likely to trigger further sharp declines in the future
In particular, given the restrictions on human mobility imposed by the current COVID-19 pandemic,
the second-largest revenue pillar—the Overseas Division, which includes aviation, shipping, corporate investment, and finance—will suffer a significant blow.
Furthermore, regarding the primary revenue pillar (retail)—including life insurance, banking, and consumer loans—
there are concerns that defaults could occur as the economy cools
While I believe the decline may not be as severe as it was during the Lehman Shock,
the current situation is unfavorable for ORIX.
Future Buying Opportunities and What Comes Next
Although the stock price fell to the 1,100-yen range this time, I did not buy Orix shares.
The reason is that, considering the points mentioned above, I believe the stock price could still fall further.
For me, this wasn’t the right time to buy
In closing
During the Lehman Shock, I was in my second year out of college and had been investing for two years.
I didn’t buy Orix shares, but I watched the news reports
and the numerous reports of layoffs and the termination of temporary workers
I wondered if this meant the end of capitalism and that social conditions would change.
While the financial crisis back then and the current COVID-19 shock differ in their causes and the areas they’ve affected,
I hope that through international cooperation and the bonds and mutual support among individuals,
we’ll be able to weather this storm with as little damage as possible.
I, too, will do what I can—even if it’s just a small contribution—by making donations in case of an emergency.
Thank you for watching until the end.
